Economic, Currency, and Commodity Observer Ibrahim Assuaibi noted that the rupiah strengthened against the US dollar to 16,648 in Friday afternoon trading (December 5, 2025).

In this afternoons trading, the rupiah closed slightly higher by 5 points, after previously weakening by 10 points to Rp 16,648 from the previous close of Rp 16,653, Ibrahim said in a statement on Friday (December 5, 2025).

Among the factors influencing the rupiahs strengthening, broader support also comes from expectations that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) could cut interest rates at its policy meeting next week, with futures prices indicating a strong possibility of a 25 basis point cut.

Investors have shifted to the view that the Fed may begin easing policy as economic momentum weakens.

US labor market data reinforced this sentiment. Weekly jobless claims fell sharply to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022, although economists noted holiday-related volatility could influence the figure.

At the same time, the private payrolls report earlier this week showed US companies cut 32,000 jobs in November, signaling weakening hiring conditions, he said.

In addition, todays market focus is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, which will be released tonight at 10:00 PM WIB. Traders will closely monitor US PCE inflation data for further clues about the Federal Reserves policy outlook ahead of its meeting next week.

Furthermore, US-Russian talks held earlier this week failed to produce an immediate breakthrough toward a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The lack of progress dampened hopes that energy sanctions on Russian crude would soon be eased, maintaining a risk premium in the market. Analysts said supply disruptions could continue, especially after Ukraines recent attack on Russian energy infrastructure.

The market also continues to brace for a potential US military strike on Venezuela after President Donald Trump said last weekend that the US would take immediate action to stop Venezuelan drug traffickers on the ground, he said.

Meanwhile, a domestic factor influencing the rupiahs strengthening was Bank Indonesias statement, which recorded Indonesias foreign exchange reserves at USD 150.1 billion at the end of November 2025.

This figure increased compared to USD 149.9 billion at the end of October 2025. The increase in foreign exchange reserves stemmed, among other things, from tax and service revenues and the withdrawal of government foreign loans.

Furthermore, the increase in foreign exchange reserves also occurred amidst Bank Indonesias rupiah exchange rate stabilization policy in response to increasing global financial market uncertainty.

BI assesses that these foreign exchange reserves are capable of supporting external sector resilience and maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability, he said.

Foreign Exchange Reserve Position

The foreign exchange reserves position at the end of November 2025 was equivalent to financing 6.2 months of imports or 6.0 months of imports and servicing government external debt, and was above the international adequacy standard of approximately three months of imports.

Going forward, Bank Indonesia (BI) believes that external sector resilience remains strong, supported by maintained export prospects and forecasted continued foreign investment inflows in line with positive investor perceptions of the domestic economic outlook and consistently attractive investment returns.

Furthermore, Bank Indonesia continues to enhance synergy with the Government in strengthening external resilience to maintain economic stability and support sustainable economic growth.

Source : liputan6.com

Dec 16th, 2025