Internally, the rupiah strengthened after Bank Indonesia reported a current account surplus of US$4.0 billion, or 1.1% of GDP, in the third quarter of 2025. This was the first surplus in the last 10 quarters. Externally, the rupiah strengthened following news of the cancellation of the October 2025 US employment report, which dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve (The Fed) interest rate cut in December. Meanwhile, in September 2025, data showed an unexpected increase of 119,000 jobs in the US, but the countrys unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and previous months were revised down.

Furthermore, hawkish comments from the President of the Cleveland Fed, who said that the current easing of monetary policy could increase financial risks. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michael Barr said he was concerned that inflation would remain at 3%, a comment that tended to be hawkish, noted Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director of PT. Traze Andalan Futures, in a written statement on Friday (November 21, 2025).

The rupiah also strengthened in the green zone following the easing of tensions in Eastern Europe regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This was indicated by a statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who said he had accepted the 28-point peace plan jointly drafted by the US and Russia.

Meanwhile, US sanctions against Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil officially took effect Friday night, following a period of production cuts. The sanctions announced earlier this year are already having an impact, as major buyers in India and China have withdrawn from purchasing cargoes, Ibrahim explained. He also anticipated that this development would impact the rupiahs position against the US dollar going forward.

Source : indopremier.com

Nov 22, 2025