Rupiah Under Pressure at Weekend, Influenced by Global Interest Rate Projections Under Trump
Rupiah closed weaker at the end of trading this week. Analysts predict the weakening will continue early next week.

The rupiah exchange rate closed lower at the end of trading this week. Based on Bloomberg spot rupiah data, at the close of trading on Friday, November 15, 2024, the rupiah weakened 12 points to Rp15,874 per US dollar from the previous Rp15,862 per US dollar. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesias Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) on Friday stated that the rupiah closed at Rp15,888 per US dollar. Weakened 15 points compared to the previous day. Director of PT Laba Forexindo Berjangka, Ibrahim Assuaibi, explained that global sentiment also influenced exchange rate movements. The dollar jumped to its highest level in the past year.

Amid increasing uncertainty over the short-term interest rate outlook and the market is also unsure about the interest rate outlook under Trump, he said in an official statement quoted on Saturday, November 16, 2024.

In addition, comments from US central bank officials or the Federal Reserve (The Fed) indicate that the central bank is more cautious in cutting interest rates in the future. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the resilience of the US economy means the central bank needs time to cut interest rates further. As a result, Ibrahim said, investors have reduced expectations for an interest rate cut in December. Based on the CME Fedwatch market expectations indicator, the chance of an interest rate cut has also shifted. Traders who estimate the chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December is only 61 percent. Down from the previous chance of 85.7 percent. Traders also see a 39 percent chance that interest rates will remain the same.

The market also saw Chinas industrial production increase in October slower than expected. House prices also contracted during the month, indicating continued pressure on the property market, Ibrahim said.

However, retail sales grew much more than expected, largely driven by Chinas Golden Week holiday. The forecast gives hope that retail spending will improve further, especially as Beijing mobilizes more stimulus.

At the beginning of next week, Ibrahim predicted the weakening exchange rate will continue. For trading next Monday, the rupiah will fluctuate but close weaker in the range of IDR 15,860 - 15,940 per US dollar.

Source : Tempo.com

Nov 16,2024
 
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